Could Amazon save the A340 or even the A380?

I am sure you are all reading this with a large expectation that Amazon has placed an order for these aircraft but sadly I have no news like this to share today. However, it could be a very tangible question in the right circumstances or environment, please read on to see why I say that…

I am currently working from home like many others around the world. My life, like many others revolves around a series of virtual meetings whether that be on Teams or Zoom and with social distancing measures it only leads to limited ‘full fat’ human interactions. One of those interactions is usually with the postal service or delivery drivers dropping of my latest internet purchase. This morning a large box arrived, delivered by a nice lady from Amazon, excited to see what had arrived only to find a small package inside. I am sure we have all had the same frustrations that why does a little package come in such a massive box, possibly you have seen the pictures on the internet of what other experiences.

At this point I am sure you are wondering what this all has to do with aircraft… bear with me! Typically, an air freight shipment is calculated by the ‘chargeable weight’. Chargeable weight is important as it creates a relationship between size and weight of an item. The chargeable weight applied to a shipment will be either actual weight or volumetric weight, whichever number is greater. A common calculation for volumetric weight is 6000 cubic centimetres per kilogram. Therefore, dividing the cubic centimetre volume of a shipments (L x W x H) by 6000 will result in the volumetric weight.

For example, let’s say you have a shipment of packages on a pallet measures 80 x 120 x 120 cm with an actual weight of 300 kg.

Below is the calculation for volumetric weight:

Volume: 80 x 120 x 120 cm = 1,152,000 cm3 (cubic centimetres)

Therefore, volumetric weight: 1,152,000 cm3 / 6000 = 192 kg

Therefore, in our example, the chargeable weight will be 300 kg as the actual weight is larger than the volumetric calculation.

The modern practicalities of moving packages by air freight, such as my Amazon delivery are proportionally taking up more space than their package weighs, thus the volumetric weight is greater than the actual weight. This has meant we have seen the popularity grow for aircraft that can carry more size than weight, compared against traditional calculations. One aircraft type stands out as being a strong example of this volumetric shift.

Recently we have seen a growth in demand for the Airbus A321 and it seems to have come of age with its options around Passenger to Freight Conversions (P2F), just last week Precision Conversions received their A321 P2F STC approval, congratulations to them. In the leasing market we have seen many lessors secure slots for conversions during this pandemic. Equally we see operators, including carriers that have traditionally operated passenger services move towards A321 assets with Freight capability such as Qantas, Titan Airways and IndiGo Airlines. The future continues to look much brighter for the A321 and this is, in part, helped by the change in consumer buying habits moving online and in turn, the way these items are boxed and handled.

Could we see this business model criteria of more space / less weight aircraft selection grow and have the same positive impact on large and very large aircraft such as the Airbus A340 and even the Airbus A380. In short, we suspect the answer is “No”, but it does come with a few caveats both for and against this argument.

• We should be mindful that the A320 family (including the A321) has a proven track record in efficient / low-cost operations and this aircraft type that has been at the centre of growth with the Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) model. These benefits can be retained and supplemented to when this type is used in the freight market. Sadly, the larger Airbus aircraft cannot offer the same added value and efficiency or operating model. In this market the strongest candidate has been the Boeing 777-300ER, hence the growing market for P2F conversions on this type.

• In the current market certain operators such as European Aviation and Air Belgium are finding a niches for these aircraft with their A340 operations. We have often heard that these aircraft are only good for “transporting feather pillows and bean bags”, due to their size versus lift capability. However, during recent times the need for PPE, vaccines and testing kits to be delivered all over the world is making a useful alternative to the pillows and bean bags in a ‘Preighter’ configuration.

Only time will tell if this large Airbus freighter market is sustainable or can grow further for these aircraft types, but we anticipate it remain a niche capability. With such strong competition from other types in the sector from aircraft such as the B747, B777 and A330 it will not support these aircraft in the long term. If either had actually entered operation as a Freighter during its period of production there may be a glimmer of hope but since the customers were all passenger carriers it is unlikely to find meaningful opportunities in the air transport – cargo market.

So this bring us back to the opening title; Can Amazon save the A340 or even the A380?… Probably not, but as an ‘Avgeek’ I would love to see these aircraft with us for many years ahead as they bring something different to the blue skies overhead.